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  • The committee has put a lot of work in this document and I believe it is well done. With that said, I think there is some overselling of where we stand with genomic selection currently. Certainly, it has been rapidly adopted, especially by the dairy industry, and has changed our breeding industry dynamics greatly. I think we need a realistic look of what has worked well, and more importantly what has not worked, to make informed implementation plans for the next era.

    It is unclear to me why phenotypic trend estimates were used when genetic trend estimates are available. The numbers cited in Appendix 5 are “mature equivalents”. Since not all cows are mature, this overestimates milk yield. Actual production records are found here: https://queries.uscdcb.com/publish/dhi/herd.html. If you look within a state such as PA which has a relatively stable industry structure, milk yield is not increasing at a more rapid rate post & genomics. A stable trend is in agreement with genetic trend estimates. States that are rapidly growing present a different picture, but that is because of non-genetic changes. The 90% Holstein number is two decades old. Based on semen sales statistics, heavier use of sexed semen in Jersey, and higher fertility of other breeds, Holsteins are probably at 80% or less. Jersey genetic trend estimates for yield (and Net Merit) are essentially the same pre & post genomics.

    Genomic selection has certainly been important in the development of health trait evaluations, but was not really successful for feed efficiency despite large investments. Why? What have we learned from this to help with future development?

    Inbreeding rates have doubled which further complicates the picture as to the true impact of genomic selection, and yet is not all all discussed. How do we protect genetic diversity in the era of genomic selection? Why are our genomic selection methodologies incapable of identifying genetically elite animals that are not highly related to the population?

    I think these are critical issues to be solved if we are to harvest the full potential of genomic selection.

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